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The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. By the end of the first half of the chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computati... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The law of accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the paceIt is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Or is there something more profound going on?In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the evoluti... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
Wherefrom Moore’s Law
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
Is the human brain different from a computer?The answer depends on what we mean by the word “computer.” Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. With regard to digital versus analog... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although I anticipate that the most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on specific biological human individuals, t... See more
Ray Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns « the Kurzweil Library + collections
The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View