Tech Dollar 2: The War of the Worlds and Fate of the Dollar

Which means we’re going to have high interest rates, but higher inflation, negative real yields, but higher nominal yields and will print the difference.

Even though they will be devaluing the value of cash via money printing, during this process, it will be worth holding, in order to acquire assets, particularly illiquid ones that produce real goods and real cash flows.

My opinion is that should the US dollar fail, or lose in a global conflict, there is a possible competitor to the dollar, but that this isn’t enough to supplant the dollar as the global reserve currency. At least not within the next decade, which is what matters to most reading this. The BRICS system doesn’t have the unique economic requirement, no... See more

In TechDollar 1, I explained that the world was bi-frucating into two systems. The countries that were producing real physical goods, and the tech and financial infrastructure of the world. That this underlying system was going to cause friction as the financial structure is currently set up to absorb real wealth from the productive countries and t... See more

As long as this exists, and the tech infrastructure is priced and sold in USD, the USD remains supreme worldwide. This is what is actually still underpinning western global dominance and enabling American power. Not any other reason most people espouse.

Reserve currency status commands many benefits to the holder, which is why it is the ultimate prize of the international system, and the most exalted status within it. In modern times, it allows the issuer of the reserve currency to extract tribute from those subservient without having to use overt force.

In the short term they will have to do some form of yield control, but they need rates to be high enough not to have the currency slide too far relative to the rest of the world. They are then going to have to print the difference.

While deficits of $1T+ per year, with debt repayments of nearly $1T themselves, people think this is unsustainable short term and will combust. I disagree, there is atleast a 5-10 year runway without the existential crisis, however as I said in TechDollar 1, it will get worse every year, the money printing will exacerbate all the issues internally ... See more

While the tech, tech adjacent, oil and gas, commodities, food (real / hard assets and real production) etc kind of industries and surrounding industries plus the govt will continue to boom, the tech infrastructure will continue to reign supreme worldwide.