On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

of being sentenced to at least twenty years in prison. And yet he hesitated. “I’d have to think about exactly what that meant,” he said after a long pause.

someone with an informed, original opinion about what the betting line should be, usually formulated through painstaking statistical modeling.

“The rationalist utopia is a power trip,”

“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”

Although Baha Mar is one of the nicest resorts you could imagine, the Bahamas also has among the world’s highest rates of wealth inequality.

But not everybody is playing the same game. People have different incentives, and they may be following their incentives rationally, but it nevertheless creates profitable opportunities for DFT, which just wants to make money. Maybe conscientious contrarianism

roon is a member of the technical staff at OpenAI, or at least that’s how The Washington Post describes him.

who had a rapid run of success in poker tournaments between 2015 and 2018 before leaving to go into effective altruism–related jobs.

Or even setting abortion aside, you’d think longtermists might express concern about the decline in fertility in industrialized countries, a question that some rationalists like Hanson have explored but EAs—80 percent of whom are childless, according to Alexander’s survey[*23]—rarely do, perhaps because it codes as conservative. At other times, tho