Non Obvious Megatrends: How to See What Others Miss and Predict the Future (Non-Obvious Trends Series)

Great trends reflect a moment in time, but that moment is never fleeting, and the basic idea is more elevated. Good trends always focus on the shift in an underlying human behavior or belief. They don’t describe a single interesting story or a hot new product or industry.

Is the name already in use or well understood? Is it relatively simple to say out loud in conversation? Does it make sense without too much explanation? Could you imagine it as the title of a book? Are the words in the name unique, not clichéd or generic? Does it describe a topic in an unexpected way?

A trend is a curated observation of the accelerating present.

Gathering is the disciplined act of collecting stories and ideas while taking notes of why they are interesting.

FOCUS ON VARIETY. One of the biggest mistakes I have seen people make when curating trends is focusing on stories or examples in a single industry. If a trend is going to describe how business is done or how consumers behave, it should be supported by examples or cases in many industries. WATCH YOUR BIASES. Nothing will cloud your judgment more tha

START WITH HUMAN NEEDS. Sometimes focusing on the underlying human emotion in a story or idea can help you see why it matters and how it connects with others. For example, the basic human need for belonging fuels many activities that people engage in online, from sharing their images on social media to joining online communities. RECOGNIZE THE OBVI

MASHUP WORDS. Mashups take two words or concepts and combine them in a meaningful way. Likeonomics is a mashup of likeability and economics. This technique can make a trend name memorable and uniquely yours, but it can feel forced and artificial if not done artfully. There is a reason I didn’t call my book Trustonomics. The best mashups are easy to

START A FOLDER. I keep a folder on my desk to store ideas written by hand, articles pulled out of magazines and newspapers, printouts from the Internet, brochures from conferences, and print ads with intrigue. The physical folder helps me to visualize the ideas and (as you’ll notice from the photographs) serves as a fundamental element of how I cur

SEEK OUT COMMON WORDS. As you review your groups of ideas and stories, look for key words that can reveal the common themes among them. When I was collecting ideas related to entrepreneurship, for example, a word kept coming up that described the growing ecosystem of on-demand services for entrepreneurs: fast. This word helped me bring various piec