It's 2004 all over again
Because of the nuances of the Electoral College, votes in some states are much more likely to swing the election than others. FiveThirtyEight compiled a “voter power index” (VPI), which compares the relative power of the vote. A VPI of 1 means that a voter in that state has an average chance of swinging the election (~1 in 60 million). A VPI of 2 m... See more
The Democratic coalition really is tetchy and hard to manage. I’ve watched a number of Arab-American writers who disapprove of Biden’s approach to Israel but agree that Trump’s would be worse spend the final month of the campaign driving up the salience of an issue that they know is bad for Harris and being relentlessly negative about her approach ... See more
Matthew Yglesias • 27 takes on the 2024 election
Any policy that would be good for one state, the new thinking goes, would be even better if it were enforced across all states. So party leaders urge partisans to vote the party ticket everywhere—that is, for the like-minded governor and senator and congressperson and president (and indirectly for like-minded Supreme Court justices) that can make i
... See moreNeil Howe • The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
In the 1992 presidential election, there were thirty-two “battleground” or “swing” states, those considered winnable by either party. By 2000, there were twenty-two. By 2004, fourteen. And by 2020, there were only eight.