tip: The margin of safety is often sufficient when it can absorb double the worst-case scenario. So the baseline for a margin of safety is one that could withstand twice the amount of problems that would cause a crisis, or maintain twice the amount of resources needed to rebuild after a crisis.

safeguard: Use the test of time. Test whether you’re addressing the root cause of a problem, rather than merely treating a symptom, by asking yourself whether it will stand the test of time. Will this solution fix the problem permanently, or will the problem return in the future? If it seems like the latter, then chances are you’re only treating a

We can represent different kinds of decisions in terms of their degrees of consequence and reversibility on a graph (see the following figure). Among these decisions, two types deserve special attention: decisions that are highly consequential and irreversible, and decisions that are inconsequential and highly reversible. When a decision is highly

Our goal in decision-making is not just to gather information, but to gather information relevant to our decision. That requires more than building an inventory of data points; it requires understanding the why and how behind those data points—the principles that good decision-makers use in this area. Getting at those principles requires asking the

the hifi principle: Get high-fidelity (HiFi) information—information that’s close to the source and unfiltered by other people’s biases and interests.

Whatever decision you’re facing, ask yourself, “Is there a way to make sure I will stick to the path I’ve decided is best?” By thinking through your options, and precommitting to courses of action, you free up space to tackle other problems. Even if we’re waiting as long as possible to decide, we now know exactly what to focus on and do when the ti

Here are four key strengths you’ll need: Self-accountability: holding yourself accountable for developing your abilities, managing your inabilities, and using reason to govern your actions Self-knowledge: knowing your own strengths and weaknesses—what you’re capable of doing and what you’re not Self-control: mastering your fears, desires, and emoti

Giving a team enough structure to carry out a mission but enough flexibility to respond to changing circumstances is called commander’s intent—a military term first applied to the Germans who were trying to defeat Napoleon.

While we can only guess why other people do what they do in poker or any other situation, our biggest blind spot tends to be knowing our own weaknesses. There’s a famous quote from Richard Feynman: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”